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IIT-Kanpur Research Team predicts when the third COVID-19 wave may peak in India

IIT-Kanpur Research Team predicts when the third COVID-19 wave may peak in India

According to a modeling study, India may be at its peak by February 3, 2022. The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may be at its peak by then.

The forecast is based on the assumption that coronavirus cases will rise in India as they have in many other countries around the world, and that this will happen in India as well. However, the study can’t say for sure how many people got vaccinated because it didn’t look at that data.

Key Highlight:

  • Scientists at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur say the COVID-19 epidemic may reach its climax on February 3, 2022.
  • The estimate assumes that India will follow the global trend of increasing Omicron form of coronavirus instances.
  • On Friday, the government announced the world’s fourth COVID-19 outbreak.
  • The study’s authors note that their conclusions assume a third COVID-19 wave may affect the country.
  • The study did not consider the population’s vaccination statistics. Hence the study cannot predict the actual peak number of cases.
  • The authors praised the union government’s vaccination campaign.

By February 3, 2022, researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur say the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India could be at its peak.

However, the forecast is based on the assumption that India will follow the global trend of more cases caused by the Omicron variant of coronavirus. This is why many countries worldwide have seen a rise in cases.

During year-end celebrations, people should not let their guard down. Friday, the government said that the world is seeing the fourth rise in COVID-19 cases.

Officials said that Delta was still the main strain in India, and they asked people to avoid crowding and unnecessary travel while acting in a COVID-19-appropriate way.

A gaussian Mixture model was used to predict the third wave in a study that hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet. It was posted on MedRxiv on December 21.

There were a lot of countries in their study that are already dealing with COVID-19. They looked at data from these countries to see how COVID-19 will affect them.

They used the daily data from these countries to figure out how the third wave in India would affect it and when it would happen.

The first and second waves in India were also used in the study. It looked at how many cases happened over time and how many were in each wave.

The model says that India’s third wave of COVID-19 will peak in early February 2022.

Around December 15, 2021, the cases will start to rise. On February 3, 2022, the peak of the third wave will be on Thursday, February 3.

In their study, the authors said that their conclusions are based on the assumption that the third wave of COVID-19 may hit the country and that the world’s trends will follow.

The researchers even said that the study couldn’t accurately predict how many people will get sick at the peak because it didn’t look at how many people were vaccinated.

Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh, all from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT Kanpur, were part of the team that worked on the project together.

The authors said that the vaccination campaign by the federal government is a good idea, but it will be a while before it has a 100% success rate, which is good.

“In many countries, like the US, the UK, Germany, and Russia, the majority of people have been vaccinated, but they are still facing the third wave.”

“So, India and other countries need to build up their defenses and be ready for another wave so that it isn’t as bad as the first ones,” the people said.

Some people work for the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, and they say that the third wave of COVID-19 will peak in early next year, but it will be less severe than the second wave.

When Omicron starts taking over from Delta, there will be many more cases in India every day.

India has now had 358 cases of the Omicron variant of coronavirus in the country, the most so far. There were 122 cases in 24 hours on Friday, the most so far.

Overall, there were 6,650 new cases of COVID-19 in the country, which brought the total number of cases in the country to 3,47,72,626, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said.

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